The Discovery of the Greenhouse Effect and Anthropogenic Climate Change
The idea of man-made climate change dates back to the Ancient Greeks who believed that human activity could alter temperatures locally. The foundation of our modern understanding of climate change dates to the 19th century when scientists first explored the greenhouse effect. In 1824, Joseph Fourier proposed that the Earth's atmosphere acts like an insulating blanket, trapping heat. This idea was expanded by John Tyndall in the 1850s, who identified specific gases, such as water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2), that contribute to this effect.
An often-overlooked contributor is Eunice Newton Foote, who, in 1856, conducted experiments showing that CO2 and water vapor trap heat. Although her work was initially overshadowed, it provided early experimental evidence of the greenhouse effect, underscoring the pivotal role of specific gases in climate regulation. Later, in 1896, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculated that doubling atmospheric CO2 levels could significantly increase global temperatures.
The 20th century saw a growing body of evidence pointing to anthropogenic climate change. By the 1950s, Charles David Keeling's measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory confirmed rising CO2 concentrations. By the late 20th century, computer models and paleoclimate data revealed the rapid warming trend correlated closely with the increase in concentration of greenhouses in our atmosphere.
Evidence for Human Activity Causing Climate Change Today
Today, the evidence for human-caused climate change is overwhelming. Satellite observations, temperature records, and ocean heat content measurements reveal unprecedented warming. Industrial activities, deforestation, and agriculture have driven CO2 concentrations to levels not seen in millions of years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with high confidence that human activities are the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century, stating that “[the] scientific evidence for warming of the climate is unequivocal”
Key indicators include:
- Rising Temperatures: Global average temperatures have increased by over 1.1°C since pre-industrial times.
- Melting Ice and Rising Seas: Arctic sea ice is declining, glaciers are retreating, and sea levels are rising.
- Extreme Weather Events: More frequent and severe heatwaves, hurricanes, and floods are linked to climate change.
Establishment of the UNFCCC and IPCC
In response to mounting scientific evidence and growing public concern, the international community took decisive steps in the late 20th century. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established in 1992 during the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Its objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.
The IPCC, created in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), plays a critical role by assessing scientific data on climate change. Its periodic assessment reports inform policymakers and the public about the state of the climate and potential mitigation strategies.
The Paris Agreement: NDCs, Global Stocktake, and Climate Finance
Adopted in 2015, the Paris Agreement is a landmark treaty under the UNFCCC. Its primary goal is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to keep it below 1.5°C. Each signatory submits Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), outlining plans to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. These commitments are reviewed every five years through a process called the Global Stocktake.
Climate finance is another cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, emphasizing the need for developed countries to support developing nations in their climate efforts. The agreement aims to mobilize $100 billion annually, although this target remains unmet, posing challenges for equitable climate action.
COP 29: Outcomes and Challenges
As the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP 29) unfolded, it served as a critical moment for assessing global progress on climate commitments. Secretary-General António Guterres set the tone for the conference, stating: "The climate crisis is a code red for humanity. We have the tools, but we need the political will to use them." Hosted by Azerbaijan, COP 29 has focused primarily on climate finance and resulted in several key outcomes:
- New Climate Finance Goal: Countries agreed to triple finance to developing nations, setting a target of $300 billion annually by 2035. This new goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), aims to replace the previous $100 billion annual target.
- Overall Climate Financing Target: An agreement to reach “at least $1.3 trillion by 2035” from public and private sources to support developing countries.
- Carbon Markets: Delegates reached an agreement on the rules for a UN-backed global carbon market, which will facilitate the trading of carbon credits.
- Adaptation Support: The conference established a support programme for the implementation of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) for the least developed countries.
- Gender and Climate Change: An extension of the enhanced Lima Work Programme on Gender and Climate Change for another 10 years was agreed upon.
- Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities: The adoption of the Baku Workplan to elevate the voices of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in climate action.
- Cooperative Initiatives: Several pledges were launched, including the COP29 Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste and an agreement to increase global energy storage sixfold.
However, COP 29 faced challenges as well:
- Failure to reach consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels, an issue postponed to future negotiations.
- The agreed climate finance goal is considered inadequate by some, falling short of developing countries’ needs, with the Secretary-General António Guterres warning countries: “Pay up or humanity will pay the price”.
Despite these limitations, the conference made progress in several areas, particularly in establishing new financial targets and operationalizing carbon markets.
Conclusion
The journey from the discovery of the greenhouse effect to today’s establishment of international organizations and recurring climate conferences underscores humanity’s evolving understanding and response to climate change. While COP 29 reflects significant advancements, it also highlights the persistent challenges of bridging ambition and action. To secure a sustainable future, the world must embrace bold, cooperative, and equitable solutions.
Discover AetherScape
Stay tuned for more information — to learn more, visit aetherscape.org
Sources
https://www.history.com/topics/natural-disasters-and-environment/history-of-climate-change
https://wmo.int/media/news/cop29-ends-compromise-climate-financing